12 States Have Shifted to Kamala Harris in Past Month—Nate Silver Model

Twelve states have trended towards Kamala Harris in the past month, according to pollster Nate Silver’s forecast.
They include Michigan, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas and New Hampshire, as well as Virginia, Montana, Ohio, Nebraska’s 2nd district, Washington and Missouri.
Meanwhile, seven states, including four swing states, have shifted towards Donald Trump, including Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Minnesota, California, Arizona and Maryland.
Pennsylvania, a key battleground state, Rhode Island and Indiana have stayed the same, with the latter trending Republican and the other two trending Democrat.
Nebraska’s 2nd district, which voted Democrat in the last election, has seen the biggest trend towards the Democrats in the past month, moving 3.1 points towards the party. That is followed by Missouri and Montana, both of which are traditionally solidly Republican states, and Washington, which is solidly Democrat.
Florida and Virginia have also seen a trend towards the Democrats in the last month of more than 1 point. Neither is considered a swing state, but polls in both have shown a more closely contested race than recent years, with Harris leading Trump by 7.3 points in Virginia and Trump leading Harris by 3.6 points in Florida. In 2020, Joe Biden won Virginia by 10 points, while Trump won Florida by 3 points.
The other six states have seen a trend towards the Democrats of less than 1 point, including swing states Michigan and Nevada, both of which Harris currently leads, according to Silver’s polling tracker.
The Republicans have seen better luck in the swing states, with Wisconsin and Georgia moving towards the Republicans by 1.4 and 1.7 points, respectively. North Carolina and Arizona have seen smaller shifts of 0.1 and 0.8 points, respectively.
Harris is leading in Wisconsin, while Trump leads by very narrow margins in Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina, according to Silver’s polling tracker.
California, a traditionally Democratic state, has seen the biggest shift towards the Republicans in the past month, shifting 2.7 points towards the GOP. Minnesota and Maryland have seen shifts of 1.8 points and 1.3 points, respectively. Both are solidly Democratic states.
Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, where Harris currently leads Trump by 1.2 points, voters continue to trend towards the Democrats.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
The forecast is a positive sign for Harris, who currently leads Trump by 3.4 points nationally, and is predicted to win the Electoral College. In order to win in November, Harris needs 44 electoral votes from the toss up states, while Trump would need 51.
538’s poll tracker shows Trump is leading Harris by one point in Arizona and Georgia, and 0.6 points in North Carolina, while Harris leads by between one and two points in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Silver’s model also shows that Trump is ahead by between 0.5 and 1.5 points in Arizona and Georgia, and North Carolina, while Harris leads by between 1 and 2 points in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Both pollsters show that Harris’ lead has decreased in every swing state since September 2, other than Nevada, where her lead has grown from 0.4 points to 1.4 points, according to 538.
Nonetheless, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast shows Harris is projected to win in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada, which would be enough to secure her a victory, while Trump leads in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona.
However, the polls remain close in the swing states, meaning the election is still anybody’s to win.
“Slim margins in the swing states make this cycle’s presidential race the closest in decades—the outcome could be closer than in any election in nearly 150 years,” 538 wrote on its website.